Current scientific analyses that were done by researchers from both Imperial College London and Lancaster University concluded that “Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to between two and three people on average at current transmission rates”.
To put it in simpler terms, with every person affected by the epidemic, another three surrounding the person are at risk too!
Reported in the Straits Times, researchers say that the spread rate is down to the effectiveness of control measures – in which to control the outbreak, at least 60 percent of the cases need to halt transmission.
As the death toll increases to 56 and nearly 2,000 infected worldwide, scientists say that the outbreak may not be able to be contained within China.
Researchers have also another grim story to tell.
“Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict it will be substantially larger by February 4.”
According to Lancaster University researchers, Wuhan is estimated to have around 190,000 cases by February 4, with the infection spreading to other Chinese cities and other countries in the process.
Raina McIntyre of Kirby Institute said that it is highly concerning that in recent days the infection has become widespread.
“The more widespread the infection in other parts of China, the greater the risk of more global spread.”
Let’s hope that the government will continue to evaluate its stance and change it quickly to further curb the widespread of the Wuhan Coronavirus to our shores.
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